Links March 8 – Jobs and social protection in Ethiopia; the “other side” of cash multipliers in Kenya; targeting performance of social assistance in Tunisia; social protection responses in Bangladesh during and since the pandemic; a “capacity cube” for assessing gaps in social protection during crises; cash assistance, gender based violence and case management in Moldova; long-term effects of cash transfers among Cherokee tribes in the US; the European workforce behind services for children; labor market reforms in South Korea; three upcoming events…

So important to connect them, and yet so hard to do it: Weedon Chapman and Vinez have a great edited volume on connecting jobs and social protection for vulnerable populations in Ethiopia. The book presents both detailed diagnostics of labor markets and assessment of responses: it first outlines main barriers to jobs (Maaskant et al), a review of gender and productivity (Coello and Bahru), urban youth aspirations (Maaskant), and disability (Narbeth and Tretyak). It then devotes five chapters to social assistance: these involve a discussion on mobility by Demirag arguing that “the PSNP does not appear to substantially affect the likelihood or duration of migration”; a chapter by Vinez et al noting that “in PSNP4, the livelihoods component represented only 1% of overall expenditures (…). Protecting the cash transfer benefit is a first-order priority but comes at the cost of complementary interventions to encourage self-employment” (BTW see above figure showing that over 90% of PSNP beneficiaries work!); Maaskant et al discuss the urban PSNP and the Bikat Program offering stipends, training, and apprenticeship opportunities to the urban youth; Sarkar et al pointed out that “the UPSNP IDP response demonstrated the system’s capacity to channel support to IDPs and the government’s willingness to use it to do so”; and finally, Gruen et al apply a delivery chain framework to select global activation policies (see table 9.2, p.202 for a taxonomy).

More on jobs and cash transfers from the Horn of Africa: Delius and Sterck found that digital food vouchers ($3-13/month) provided to 400,000 refugees increased revenues of licensed businesses participating in the scheme (+175%), but these firms also charged higher prices than unlicensed ones. Hence they remind us that the performance of cash-based assistance hinges on market structure: “[i]f markets are perfectly competitive, the recipients of unrestricted cash transfers capture all the benefits of the transfers (…). When markets are imperfect, however, businesses may be able capture part of the benefits of unrestricted cash transfers by offering prices that are above the marginal cost”.

Let’s move to Northern Africa: based on 2015-2016 data, an article by Nasri et al compares the targeting performance of Tunisia’s PNAFN cash transfer program (plus that of other two health programs) with two alternative targeting methods. These include the Mixed Means Test (MMT), an adaptation of the program’s proxy means test (PMT) combining individual and geographic variables, and a multi-dimensional targeting measure. Results? While PNAFN covers 8.4% of the population, only about 22% of beneficiaries belong to the bottom decile, with the use of MMT potentially raising the rate to roughly 60% (see table 5, p.12). Also, the coverage of the poorest 10% is about 29% under the MMT model and 17% with the PMT. However, as table 6 on p.13 shows, MMT would also entail significant inclusion and exclusion errors (39% and 70% respectively, which are generally in line with average targeting errors in PMT). In both cases, whether a MMT or PMT, exclusion errors are cut by half as coverage increases from 10 to 40% (h/t Imane Helmy) (note: if you don’t have access to this or other gated articles, just email me for a copy). Bonus: a blog by Gallien argues that “[h]alf of Tunisia’s economy is informal. If you want to call them criminals you can, but it doesn’t help. The informal economy must become part of Tunisia’s structural economy”.

News from Asia? Roelen et al document the experience with poverty and government responses among urban dwellers in Bangladesh (i.e., Kallyanpur, Dhaka and Shantinagar, and Chittagong). In June 2020, over 95% of survey respondents in slums had “seen” relief activities, but only 67% accessed them (table 3.8, p.38). Three years later, only 54% of respondents had received some assistance (p.3.9). A key response was food sales by the government from trucks (3.10), which was often accompanied by long waiting hours (p.44) (see box 3.4, p.47 for beneficiary suggestions on improving food truck delivery).

Speaking of crises… how to best visualize and understand social protection delivery in emergencies? Slater proposes to do so through a “capacity cube” (see also her blog). Such geometrical shape articulates gaps in terms of “levels” (individual, organizational, and institutional), “capacities” (competencies, capabilities and performance), and “processes over time” (build, apply and maintain), with figures 2, 3 and 4 populating the cube with a range of assessment guiding questions.

What’s happening on the humanitarian front? A report by UNFPA examines a pilot program in Moldova that integrated cash assistance into gender-based violence case management. And CALP has an event on humanitarian cash and voucher assistance in… well… the US (April 19).

More on the US and other high-income settings: Bustos et al estimate that among American Indians in North Carolina, longer exposure to cash transfers among children increased the age in childbearing and decreased pre-pregnancy body mass index in adulthood. Who is tasked with providing essential services for children in the EU? A Eurofound paper discusses the newly-approved European Child Guarantee workforce. Fleckenstein and Lee assess labor market dualism and recent reforms in South Korea.

And finally… the 14th edition of the poverty and social protection conference is coming up (March 9-11); ILO is organizing an event on disability-inclusion in public employment services in Asia Pacific (March 12)… and the same day another gathering explores social protection and adolescent girls.