The new living paper v15 on global social protection responses is out alongside the accompanying excel file (note: links to the paper and database will be active in a couple of hours). Let’s explore some key numbers emerging from the analysis…
3,333… There has been an exponential growth in social protection measures since the last edition. The updated database shows that between March 20, 2020 and May 14, 2021, a total of 3,333 social protection measures have been planned or implemented in 222 countries or territories. This represents an increase of nearly 148% since December 2020. While social assistance and insurance soared by about 120% and 110%, respectively, active labor market interventions surged by nearly 330%.
55%… Most of social protection measures are provided as social assistance. These represent 55% of global programs and are the predominant form of support in all regions expect Eastern Europe and Central Asia, as well as high income countries.
23%… Among social assistance measures, cash transfers remain the premier instrument. A total of 734 cash-based measures have been planned or implemented in 186 countries. This estimate doesn’t include the recorded 48 social pension programs, which are present in 38 countries. Taken together, there are 782 cash transfer programs globally, which account for 42% of total social assistance and 23% of global social protection responses. In-kind vouchers and school feeding are also widespread, including a total of 320 measures. Furthermore, 38 public works programs are present in 29 countries, while waiving or postponing payments for utilities and other financial obligations are adopted in an astounding 701 cases across 181 countries.
384… Moving to social insurance, our database includes an additional 384 measures since December. The most widely adopted are waived or subsidized social security contributions (245 programs), followed by unemployment benefits (172) and paid sick leave (134). Pensions-related measures are present in 77 cases, with some countries, like Ecuador, allowing for advance withdrawals of pensions.
512… Zooming back into social assistance, most programs for which there is data are ongoing. Out of the 1,841 measures, data on whether programs are planned, ongoing or ended is available for nearly half of them, or 984 schemes. Most of these are under implementation (512 programs), while 37% are concluded. Only about 11% are being planned or announced and not yet started.
92%… Cash transfer programs are relatively generous. In a sample of 125 countries with available data, the average transfer size represents 31% of monthly GDP per capita, ranging from 18% in North America to 52% in Sub Saharan Africa. Among the highest country-level rates are low income countries like Burkina Faso (290%), Afghanistan (176%), Sierra Leone (175%) and Malawi (141%). For 24 programs with comparable pre- and post-Covid data on generosity, the analysis shows that the size transfers were increased by an average of 92% during the pandemic.
69% & 29%… Only a minority of cash transfer programs are being scaled up based on existing schemes. Out of the 734 cash transfer schemes, almost 69% are new programs and 29% are one-off interventions. The latter include 10 universal programs, with an eleventh (Tuvalu) that featured multiple payments. Administrative simplifications are being put in place in 36 programs across 29 countries, while payments have been advanced in 12 schemes in 11 countries.
4… The duration of cash transfers remains short, but longer than before. Information on the duration of cash transfer programs is available for 142 schemes. Among these, the duration ranges between 1 and 12 months, for an average of 4 months. This represents an average increase by almost a month relative to the December 2020 estimate. For a subset of 79 cash transfer programs (or 10.4% of the cash transfers sample in 54 countries), information was recorded on program extension; put differently, there was no information available on possible extensions for 677 schemes. For 49 out of those 79 programs, information was available on exact duration of such extension, which was for an average 3.1 months.
2.9… The specific state in implementation progress of cash transfer programs continues to be relatively encouraging. In December 2020, program-level data on planned (or announced) and actual beneficiaries (i.e., programs for which it is possible to record how far they are in the implementation phase) was available for 82 cases. In this edition, such analysis is expanded to 141 programs. For the top 50 programs ranked by planned coverage rates, the average percentage points difference between planned and actual coverage rates is 2.9. For the full sample of 141 programs, such difference is even lower, or 1.5 percentage points. In some cases, like Morocco, the actual cash transfers beneficiaries dwarfed initial plans.
1.3B… The global number of beneficiaries remains significant. The estimated global number of planned individual social assistance beneficiaries is 2.4 billion. This number includes people that benefited from both horizonal and vertical program expansion of cash and in-kind safety net programs. However, the actual number of beneficiaries – or those participating in programs for which reporting on implementation progress is available – is a little over 1.5 billion, or one-fifth of the world’s population. The number of planned and actual cash transfers beneficiaries is 1.8 and 1.5 billion, respectively. Again, these numbers refer to people benefiting from either expanded coverage or more generous transfers from existing cash transfer schemes. Our data also allows to estimate horizonal or coverage expansion only (i.e., not counting people only benefiting from vertical increases in transfer generosity): in this case, cash transfers reached a planned number of nearly 1.6 billion people and an actual level of over 1.3 billion people. In other words, almost 17% of the world’s population has been covered with at least one Covid-related cash transfer payment between 2020 and 2021.
206M… In terms of number of people covered, select countries have attained impressive six-digit levels. Which were the cash transfer programs with highest scale up coverage levels? With over 206 million individuals covered, India’s Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana (PMJDY) program is the largest Covid-related cash transfer scheme worldwide. Such program is followed by three cash transfer interventions all reaching over a hundred million people, namely the US first stimulus check (160 million), Japan’s one-off universal program reaching about (116.5), and Pakistan’s Ehsaas (100.9).
100%… In terms of coverage as percentage of the population, the top-10 ranks are dominated by universal one-off programs often combining monetary and fiscal policy. Some of these schemes reached the full population (e.g., Israel, Korea, and Japan); others, instead, opted for near-universal variants with modular design (e.g., Singapore having differentiated payments) or reaching only adult populations (e.g., Hong-Kong and Serbia). Tuvalu was, as mentioned, the only case where temporary universal transfers were delivered in multiple payments. Morocco and El Salvador reached nearly 80% of the population not by universalizing transfers, but by supporting informal sector workers specifically. It should be noted that in April 2021, Mongolia announced a one-time cash transfer of $105 for every citizen (including those residing abroad): at the time of preparing this global update, information on actual disbursements of such transfer couldn’t be corroborated. Hence, it’s likely that the country may appear in the top 10 list in the next update.
249%… The rate at which cash transfers have been scale up relative to pre-Covid coverage levels remains high. For 36 countries with comparable data, the average scale up rate between pre and post-Covid coverage is 249%. This doesn’t include 15 countries (mostly low income and fragile states) for which rates were over 1000% due to low pre-Covid coverage rates. For example, latest available pre-covid data for Angola showed that about 5,800 beneficiaries were covered by cash transfers – a number that increased to over 7.7 million in the aftermath of Covid; similarly, Togo’s coverage increased from about 12,000 before the pandemic to over 1.8 million during it; and in Madagascar, coverage rose from 192,000 to about 2 million individuals.
$345… While global average per capita spending is $345, significant heterogeneity exists within country income groups. Global social protection spending is largely driven by the Unites States, which accounts for 65% of global spending in the sector. In high income countries, spending can be as high as $8,496 (Sweden), while in upper middle-income countries it can reach $2,381 (Saint Lucia). Those estimates will keep being refined as more spending data becomes available.
2%… On average, countries spent an average of 2% of GDP on social protection. The top 5 high income countries by level of social protection spending were Sweden (16% of GDP), Poland (10%), Slovak Republic (9%), the United States (9%) and Aruba (6%). Among the top upper middle-income countries are Saint Lucia (26% of GDP), Serbia (9%), Malaysia (6%), Belize (5%), and Kosovo (4%). The highest level of spending in lower middle-income countries is observed in Mongolia (8% of GDP), Zimbabwe (5%), Bolivia (3%), Pakistan (1.2%), and with a range of others spending 1% of GDP. Finally, among low income countries spending is particularly high in Afghanistan (3% of GDP), Chad (2%), and Somalia, Niger, and South Sudan (all at 1% of GDP).
4… One of the special features of the paper focuses on delivery matters. There were essentially four ways to find and enroll new beneficiaries, the first of which was to simply add households to the list from an existing social registry. Brazil and Indonesia expanded their lists quickly by adding all those households already in their databases of potential beneficiaries. Sri Lanka included all those households on waiting lists before the pandemic. Some countries refined this approach and applied criteria such as checking that the person did not work in the formal sector. Argentina and Peru were among the countries able to check this by comparing social registry and social insurance databases. In Pakistan, where social insurance coverage is very low, the filters included having a public sector worker in the household, vehicle and property ownership and the amount spent on telephone bills.
27… In lieu of a social registry, some countries tapped alternative sources of administrative data. Togo used a recently generated voter database that covered 95 percent of adults and happened to include information on occupation which the government used for targeting informal sector workers. Guatemala relied on electricity consumption data. India used data on more than 200 million low income women for whom bank accounts had been opened in a financial inclusion drive. Namibia relied on the civil registry and checked against income tax records. Many countries moved quickly by using on-line applications. By cross-referencing with other administrative datasets and existing beneficiary rolls, countries using on-line applications typically filtered out formal sector workers and those already receiving benefits from other programs. In spring of 2020, Thailand approved around 23 million applications from informal sector workers and farmers – more than half of the working age population. Within a few weeks, more than 6 million on-line benefit applications were validated in South Africa. Brazil registered about 27 million households in a matter of weeks through its on-line process.
6%… More than the scale of coverage, the availability of data may have affected the accuracy of the registration process. Countries that relied on manual processes are more likely to have had errors and fewer controls for fraud. In Bangladesh for example, the roll out was severely delayed and the original target of 5 million households was never reached – likely due to problems with data collected by local officials. Survey data for Myanmar suggest that transfers were delayed and poorly targeted. In the Philippines, the government’s early estimation suggests that at least six percent of beneficiaries were duplicates.
250k… Phone record and satellite data are being leveraged to select new beneficiaries across several countries. Togo is seeking to improve on its early success in scaling up transfers using new technologies. After selecting the poorest 100 cantons, 57 thousand households are being enrolled having been selected based on satellite and phone record data using machine learning algorithms. When tested, the accuracy of this approach compared favorably to other feasible approaches including the previous occupation-based criteria. The Democratic Republic of Congo is currently enrolling 250 thousand households selected based on Call Detail Records (CDR) combined with geographic targeting. Malawi used satellite imagery combined with local government data collection in urban areas and made cash transfers to close 35 percent of the urban population.
15… Not all digital payments used for G2P delivery provided a gateway to deeper financial inclusion. Unique-code based payments were leveraged by some countries that were lacking essential enablers, such as the ability to conduct remote account onboarding, but still wanted to gain some of the efficiencies of delivering payments digitally. This payment method allows for simplified delivery with no onboarding needed, as an account is not created. Instead, a One-Time Password or a single use code is either delivered or requested by the beneficiary and can be used to carry-out purchases or withdraw cash at merchants or ATMs. As these payments are not linked to an account this method does not provide a gateway to other financial services such as savings, transfers and digital payments which can deepen financial inclusion and improve beneficiaries’ welfare. Among the 58 developing countries analyzed, at least 15 countries reported leveraging these electronic non-account-based methods, including Peru, Sierra Leone and Guatemala, among others.
72%… This edition also presents a special feature on labor market interventions. During the COVID-19 pandemic, governments put different wage subsidy programs in place to help employers maintain existing jobs or to encourage them to hire new employees. The use of wage subsidies was more common in higher-income countries. Only 14 percent of LICs and 40 percent of LMICs implemented wage subsidies, as opposed to 59 percent of UMICs or 72 percent of HICs. In Romania, employers benefited from a 50% wage subsidy when hiring workers over the age of 50, registered as unemployed and whose labor contracts ceased for reasons beyond their control during the state of emergency for a period of 12 months. Similarly, in Uruguay the Social Security Bank launched an income support program for those firms who reemploy workers who receive unemployment benefits or who employ new workers between July and September 2020. In France, under the “1 jeune, 1 solution” plan, the government offers a flat EUR $4,000 to firms for any young person recruited between August 1, 2020, and March 31, 2021.
55%… Governments also adjusted their labor market regulations and introduced shorter work time arrangements to retain employment relationships. Together, both policies account for 55% of all labor market policies and include changes to severance payment obligations, hiring flexibility, dismissal procedures, modifications to leave policies and remuneration, as well as labor inspections. Shorter work arrangements are considered under a separate category as they constitute a widely used regulatory policy during the pandemic.
1/3… A third of the countries considered implemented at least one policy related to shorter work time arrangements. Especially LMICs and LICs relied on these policies. Of the selected labor market policy responses to the pandemic, 63% in LMICs and 82% in LICs relate to changes in labor regulations or shorter work time arrangements. This could be indicative of their commitment to protecting (formal) workers from economic hardship in a situation where allocating resources through other policies, such as wage subsidies, imply larger budget difficulties, especially for LICs.
45… Shorter work time benefits that give additional flexibility vis-a-vis the traditional working day and week were widely used. Colombia introduced successive work shifts of no more than 8 hours a day, with a maximum of 36 hours a week. Similarly, in Brazil the program Banco de Horas allowed to interrupt working hours, with a compensation at a later stage by working up to 45 hours per week, while the government of Somalia introduced flexible working arrangements for civil servants including options to work from home.
$155… Additionally, among the main types of regulatory changes implemented were those concerning remuneration and occupational health and safety in the workplace. For example, Cuba prohibited the reduction in wages for those workers who needed to self-isolate, while Algeria raised the national monthly minimum wage from 18,000 DZD ($139) to 20,000 DZD ($155). Some changes targeted specific groups through additional remuneration or hazard pay. In Ghana, Uzbekistan, and American Samoa health care workers received a bonus. Measures concerning safety regulations in the workplace were taken in 20% of the countries, including the introduction of workplace protocols and guarantees for the safe transfer of workers to and from their workplaces.
14%… While activation policies represent only 14% of all labor market policies introduced, they constitute an important part of the policy response as 33% of countries have implemented at least one of these policies. Itis interesting to note that just as for wage subsidies, the share of countries that has implemented at least one of these policies increases with income, indicating that not all countries can afford these measures. That is, only 17% of LICs have implemented at least one activation policy and 43% of HICs have done so.
500… With respect to skills training aimed at increasing workers employability, countries have targeted their assistance to those working in the most affected sectors or the most affected groups, such as the youth, and the unemployed. In Anguilla, the government has offered free training courses to over 500 tourism employers. Antigua and Barbuda announced scholarships to nationals who once worked for a regional airline to help them reskill. In the United Kingdom, the government implemented the Kickstart Scheme which gives firms financial support to create job placements and train young people who are currently beneficiaries of the cash transfer program Universal Credit and at risk of long-term unemployment. In line with this, Costa Rica introduced the Protect Skills Plan, a scholarship program for online training targeted at the unemployed. In Indonesia, Kartu Pra-Kerja (Pre-Employment Card Program), a program that provides subsidized vouchers for unemployed workers for skilling and reskilling has doubled its allocated budget from 10 to 20 trillion IDR ($689 to $1,378 million).
60%… Finally, as economies reopen and more workers that had been driven out of the labor force return to the market, it is expected that countries will continue to strengthen their training and re-skilling policies. In February 2021 the Maldives government announced a new training program targeting youth in the tourism sector as well as in construction and ICT. As part of its 2021 National Development plan, Zimbabwe announced it would engage the private sector in the establishment of incubation hubs, labor intensive public works programs, remodeling of skills and entrepreneurship development. Sweden will provide financial compensation for training by covering 60% of the costs of training as part of the Swedish short-time allowance.