WSPLs Sept 18 – the 13th update of the “living paper” tracking the state in global social protection responses to Covid19!

 

Enjoy the 13th edition of the Global Social Protection COVID19 response paper (with excel file!)

The number of countries and territories that have introduced, or planned to do so, social protection responses to Covid-19 continue to grow. Over the past six months, a total of 212 countries or territories, 12 more since our last update in July, have planned or put in place 1,179 social protection measures. The latter includes an additional 124 interventions compared to version 12 of this review.

Regions present different combinations of social protection components. Compared to the last update in July, the broad composition remains similar, with marginal changes in the order of one percentage point. Sub-Saharan Africa is the region with the highest share of social assistance (84%), followed by South Asia (80%) and Latin America and the Caribbean (72%). North America, the Middle East and North Africa, and Europe and Central Asia display a relatively higher reliance on social insurance (between 32% and 44%), while East Asia and ECA present the largest share of labor market measures (between 18-20%). In terms of country income groups, social assistance claims most of social protection measures in low-income setting, a share that gradually erodes at countries climb the income ladder.

How much are countries spending on social protection responses? For a subset of 119 countries for which data is available, a total of $789.8 billion is being spent on social protection measures for Covid-19. This represents a significant increase since July in absolute terms (a difference of about $200 billion). That represents almost a percentage point (0.89%) of the 87.7 trillion global GDP in 2019 and well exceeds the level of social protection spending that occurred as part of the global response to the 2010 financial crisis. On a per capita basis, about $243 are being provided per person: this ranges from $695 in high income countries to $4 in low-income settings. While the latter amount is low, it is four times higher than in July.

Social assistance accounts for most of the social protection response. A total of 724 measures were recorded, accounting for 61.4% of the response. About 51% of those safety net measures, and 31.3% of global measures, are various forms of cash-based transfers in 158 countries. Six cash transfer measures are provided as universal programs. In-kind transfers are also substantial, with 22% of the social assistance portfolio (and 13.7% of the social protection envelop) including the distribution of food commodities, vouchers and school feeding programs. Waiving utility fees or financial obligations occurs in 174 instances in 101 countries, while 18 public work programs, a modality largely freezed or made unconditional in the early phases of the pandemic, are now present in 13 countries.

Cash transfer programs tend to be relatively generous, mostly new, one-off and of short duration, although in some cases their duration has been extended. For a sample of 95 countries for which generosity data is available, transfers represent about one-quarter or 26% of average monthly GDP/capita. For low-income countries, such rate was 52%, with Haiti, Madagascar and Afghanistan being among the highest globally. For a subset of 22 countries with comparable per and post-Covid19 data, cash transfers generosity was almost doubled, or increased by 93%. New and one-off programs constitute a significant share of Covid-19 cash transfers: almost 68% of cash transfer programs (or 231 schemes) are new ones, with 29% (105 programs) being one-off interventions. Information on duration is available for 92 cash transfer measures ranging from 1 to 12 months. Most measures are put in place for 3 months, for a global average of 3.3 months. Out of the 340 cash transfer programs, 16 measures in 14 countries/territories have been extended in duration due to the protracted nature of the crisis (Indonesia and Azerbaijan extended two schemes).

Almost 2 billion individuals are covered by social assistance. Based on our analysis, the planned or actual scale up of social assistance transfers in-kind and cash-based reaches 1.8 billion people (1,877,829,067). If we examine the coverage expansion for cash transfers, then such scale-up covered over 1.3 billion people (1,329,775,703). This level of coverage equals to 17% of the world’s population. For countries with comparable administrative data, or 55 countries, we estimated pre- and post-Covid19 scale up in coverage in cash transfers. In general, countries have increased the planned or actual coverage somewhat proportionally to previous levels. Interestingly, the additional Covid-19 coverage level is systematically higher than pre-Covid19 levels. The rate of scale up relative to pre-Covid19 levels is substantial. Because of very low levels of pre-Covid19 coverage, for a range of low-income and fragile states the Covid19 response of cash transfers represented over a ten-fold increase. If we exclude those cases, for the remaining sample of 42 cases the average rate of increase in cash transfers coverage is about 217%.

New estimates reveal the extent to which planned Covid-19 social assistance interventions have been completed or are under implementation. While data and information for planned programs is now readily available, determining their stage in implementation is more challenging. To shed light on this question. we conducted a program-by-program assessment focusing on the full gamut of social assistance programs. We found that data on implementation status is available for 36% of the sample, or 286 out of the total 784 measure. In particular, for cash transfers a total of 196 programs reported information (out of 370): 99 of those measures are ongoing at the time of releasing this report, while 33 are planned and 64 are completed. In other words, available data indicates that 83% of cash transfers are either active or ongoing.

Program-level analysis provides further insights on the state of implementation of cash transfer programs. A range of programs that have attained the specified target of coverage. This is particularly true for more modest coverage levels where actuals and planned are aligned or very close. Haiti, however, is an exception with only a fraction of the planned coverage being attained. This should not necessarily be interpreted as problematic since in Haiti, like other countries, implementation is still ongoing. As coverage levels become more ambitious, more marked differences between planned and actual coverage rates emerge – again, in most cases reflecting the real-time implementation of programs. Programs in countries like Serbia were able to announce bold transfer programs and fulfill their delivery promise.

Among the completed or ongoing programs, a large share of those with highest coverage is mostly located in Asia and Latin America. This may reflect a relatively high concentration of social assistance combined with delivery capabilities (see section on delivery). In absolute terms, India has the largest cash transfer coverage reaching over 200 million people. With the exception of Brazil, all the top 10 countries by absolute number of cash transfer beneficiaries of programs under implementation or that have been concluded are in Asia (East and South). If we consider coverage by rates, the ranking is slightly more mixed, with several Latin American countries displaying considerable coverage and an ECA country, Serbia, on top of the chat.

Turning to other key social protection components, social insurance programs slightly increased since July. This includes an additional 13 measure and 6 additional countries, bringing the count to 286 and 131, respectively. Most programs include unemployment benefits (82 measures), followed by paid sick leave (70) and the wavers, deferment or subsidization of social security contributions (64). Also significant is the number of pensions and disability-related measures (54), while healthcare insurance support only appeared in 16 cases. Several policy and practical developments occurred in the social insurance space, with this edition laying out policy challenges and offering illustrations of practices from Denmark, Australia, Mexico, New Zealand, Switzerland, El Salvador, United States, Chile, Peru, and Malaysia.

Supply-side, worker-related labor market programs are also on the rise. With 169 programs in 99 countries, this edition cements the role of wage subsidies as the lead labor instrument: those measure now account for 58% of the labor portfolio with 99 measures in 85 countries. Other measures include labor market regulation adjustments (30 cases), 28 activation initiatives, and shorter-time arrangements (12). Also in this case, practices are mentioned from contexts like Australia, Canada, Colombia, Croatia, Netherlands, Mongolia and Poland, Colombia, Serbia and the Dominican Republic, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Argentina, Cabo Verde, Ecuador, Egypt, Mauritius, Morocco, the Philippines, Rwanda, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Brazil, and Singapore.

As cash transfers continue to play a central role as a Covid-19 response measure, delivery systems have been tested significantly.  This edition provides an in-depth update of key innovations and challenges in beneficiary identification, selection, registration and payments. Practical examples, illustrations and practices bring together delivery experiences from Philippines, Tunisia, Cambodia, South Africa, Morocco Colombia, Thailand, Ecuador, Zimbabwe, Democratic Republic of Congo, Bangladesh, Mali, Nigeria Namibia, Togo, Guatemala, Peru, Brazil, Jordan, and, of course, India!